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@semil's blog, building a technology community
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Brief Thoughts On The Rollout Of Facebook “Home”

Earlier this week, I was helping a friend think through his post on Facebook’s recent ads for “Facebook Home.” He’s an early employee and investor, and the TV ads seemed to bother him. In our email conversation, I shared my brief view of Facebook Home overall, from concept to TV spots, and he suggested that I share them. So, I have reproduced them below, slightly cleaned up from our email change.

How I Think About “Facebook Home.”

  • From a technical standpoint: It’s brilliant. They have reinvented “what is an app?” from the ground up.
  • From an execution standpoint: It’s brilliant. It’s not easy to pull off a v1 like this, and they made the right move.
  • From a strategic standpoint: It’s great. One carrier and handset to let them iron out any kinks, after which they can choose to move accordingly.
  • From a product point-of-view: Hmmm….I’m not sure I’d want “Home,” but more importantly, the younger demographic seems to shun the idea of permanence, the web, and Facebook altogether.
  • Analyzing positioning during launch: It was OK. Not bad. They got their overall point across.
  • TV commercials: A pure disaster. They’re off-key. not cool. too weird. potentially ruin brand further. It’s a tone-deaf mistake that allows the chattering classes to easily point to how out of touch FB may actually be.

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“Finishing”

I just finished watching Day 3 of this year’s Masters tournament. One of today’s greatest golfers, Jason Day, finished today with a chance to be in the lead, but unfortunately recorded bogey-bogey on the last two holes. He had a bad finish. The word finish is kind of an interesting word. I can mean so many things. It can be the final touches a painter does on a job, or the final touches on a product. It can be a noun, and it can be a verb, something you may want to stop or want to end. I’ve been thinking about the act of “finishing” lately when it comes to any kind entrepreneurship. This is not confined to technology and websites and mobile apps. I assume that nearly everyone who makes it this far has the skills and determination to start, to get over that initial hump. It is hard to start a product, or a business, or a services firm, or a restaurant, or coffee shop. Many people get over this hump, and it’s to be celebrated. But, how many “finish” in a manner they’re proud of? How many have the ability to concentrate in the face of being tired, exhausted, uncertain, and pulled in many professional and personal directions. Of the few things I’ve started, yeah, I got over the hump, but I didn’t finish with greatness. Jason Day today, one of the best golfers in the world, started this tournament on fire, but today, just today, he didn’t finish with strength. This is something that I look for when evaluating new products, services, and companies. While the work is never really done, there is always some level of “finishing” that it takes to make a success. Around here, I assume everyone can start, and the trick is to try to identify those who can also close it out.

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Iterations: The Tension Between Transparency And Privacy In The Startup Ecosystem

Recently, there has been an increase in demand for transparency in the startup world, and while I understand where that desire comes from, I do think there are some nuances and benefits of private enterprise that should be examined. So, that’s what I did in yesterday’s column, see below.

Everyone wants more transparency. It is part of a deep, fundamental trend. In government. In the workplace. Inside large systems like health care. And, more recently, around early-stage startup metrics and investment data. The crowd wants more transparency. They want to know more about metrics, revenues, and stats, and they want to know more about how investment dollars are allocated. Yet, the result of this shift raises concerns about privacy. In this world of imperfect, asymmetric information, combined with the desire among participants to build up, invest in, and report on the industry itself, frustrations can mount easily because, somewhere in the recess of our minds, the game feels slightly rigged in the other person’s favor, and the light of sunshine offers a promise of transparency to perhaps root out those bad apples and, just perhaps, inject an ounce of fairness, comfort, and peace of mind in an otherwise shady world.

In this real tension, we find many nuances.

For companies, unless they’re growing as fast as Pinterest or booking revenue as fast as Bloomreach, there’s little incentive to be fully transparent and publicly disclose metrics. Doing so may impact future fundraising efforts, strain relationships with existing investors, hamper potential partnerships, and inform competitors of an opening. Remaining relatively quiet is one of the key benefits of being a small, closely-held private company.

For investors, transparency may be an even dicier proposition. First, companies they invest in may want to remain stealth or not have their investors made public. In these situations, it is the founders who drive privacy — not the investors. Second, some investors may prefer to keep their moves private so as to not give their own competitors actionable information, especially in a climate where competition among funds within a contracting industry is growing fiercer. By law, investment funds are required to make filings with regulatory agencies, but those laws do not include, for example, listing out limited partners and other details many would like to know. Many people are also simultaneously investors in many funds at multiple stages, compounding the sensitivity.

So, here we are. Many want — in fact, at times, demand — that all of this data be made public to identify, tag, and call out the early-stage companies and investors who are not active, who are not what quite what they say they are. Investors may be growing tired of companies who craft and broadcast vanity metrics, and founders may be growing tired of converting their investor spreadsheets into a never-ending cascading waterfall of pointless investment pitches that waste time. Investors are in pursuit of perfect information when considering pulling out the checkbook, and every minute a founder spends pitching an investor who likely won’t pull the trigger because they’re generally disinterested, are phishing for information, or may not have any gunpowder left.

We have forgotten one dimension. We must investigate what fundamentally drives all of this to begin with: It is our collective curiosity to know more during a time in society where demand transparency is rising and at loggerheads with keeping some information private.

Nearly everyone in the ecosystem participates in the making of, analyzing of, or reporting on the news. Nearly everyone has a desire to know more about “who” funded “what” and at “what price.” Founders are lured to coordinating PR around their funding announcements, helped by an industry devoted to this and a network graph of relationships which can make dreams sing above the noise to target the right set of potential partners, the next key hires, and even the next investor. By the same token, investors love to be mentioned in these announcements, their brands gently stitched into the threads of the story. Both, ironically, work in concert, revealing what is material but oftentimes — as is currently their right — cloaking the specifics. The result is speculation masked as information. Add the real-time nature of Twitter to the mix, and perception distorts any signal frequency into reality.

People are keeping score, if even in the back of their mind, of who is following who, who is investing in who, who has real growth, who has real money, who is walking dead, who won’t be able to raise their next round, who won’t be able to raise their next fund, and all the other aspects and currencies of what makes the Valley’s parlor game so dynamic and opaque. I believe in more transparency on a fundamental level and am not an apologist for shadowiness, but I do recognize that part of the draw of private enterprise is, well, privacy.

The big fault line here is between transparency versus privacy. The web continues to make imperfect markets more efficient, and it is only rational that in these imperfect markets, rational actors will want as much information as possible before transacting. The startup world, in this context, is just another market, one that has traditionally been kept largely private and is slowly opening up thanks to new platforms, blogging, and (ironically) private dashboards created by actors to try to use data to make sense of the madness. The cost of this transparency is privacy, but not just for private companies and firms — but also perhaps for people, because a person’s reputation in our industry is tied so closely to one’s place of work, the drive for transparency might mean that individuals, in addition to firms and startups, may have to give up more privacy than they bargain for.

 

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From My Archives: The Facebook iPhone (Sept 2011)

I wrote this post back in September 2011 to speculate what I’d do with iOS if I worked for Facebook…

In The Facebook Effect, David Kirkpatrick posits the great social network is the one entity that could bully Apple, today’s most powerful technology company. As the iPhone and other iOS devices have paved the way toward an unprecedented level of convergence, the collective power of Facebook’s user base presents a daunting challenge to Apple: specifically, could Facebook literally imprint its own applications on iOS devices, most notably the iPhone, to the point where it could, theoretically, transform the device into “The Facebook Phone” without ever having built its own hardware and/or standard mobile operating system?

At the moment, Facebook is believed to be undertaking what has been dubbed “Project Spartan,” its own Trojan Horse for stitching its social layer into multiple mobile platforms in lieu of building its own phone (like Apple) and/or its own mobile operating system (like Android). As “Spartan” has been written about before in detail (which I won’t recount here), the basic idea, as it applies to Apple, is the development and rollout of multiple HTML5 applications which would allow Facebook to create a range of mobile applications without having to adhere to the rules and toll charges imposed by Apple’s app-store.

Now, let’s consider an alternative scenario: What if Facebook releases an entire suite of iOS apps, as fast as “Messenger” (which feels faster than SMS) and powered by users’ own social networks?

Specifically, what if Facebook decides to apply resources to construct a full “suite” of federated yet interconnected native iPhone and iPad applications to satisfy a number of interactions within Facebook, entirely powered by your friends? Consider, for a moment, the possibility of having individual apps for asking questions, playing games, sharing pictures and videos, digesting your newsfeed, listening to music with friends, accessing your address book, participating in groups, viewing pictures and videos, and so on. You could have them all, or just use a few. I’m not suggesting that it will happen, but theoretically, Facebook has the muscle to create these apps and, with its huge user base, they would be downloaded in droves.

A few months ago, Apple announced a partnership to tie Twitter into its operating system. Many lauded the deal as a win for both sides, and to be sure, it is a great idea. But to be fair, it also underscores the lengths to which Apple, a company without a social network and notorious for wanting to control its platform, made strange bedfellows with Twitter. Earlier, when Apple had tried to bake Facebook into its iTunes player experience, Ping, apparently it didn’t work out because one side exerted more strength than the other. Guess who?

Whether Project Spartan continues, or whether Facebook builds out all these native iOS apps, Facebook will increasingly become the mobile identity gatekeeper and power source behind some of the newer application layer services. For example, one of the most anticipated iPhone apps to arrive this month is Turntable.fm, which requires that users login via Facebook only.

One thing is clear: Facebook is determined to get onto your iPhone. And your Android, and any other major mobile platform, too. The number of platforms doesn’t matter—this game is platform-agnostic. It will either build its own “lingua franca” for mobile via HTML5, or maybe it will build an entire fleet of apps. Or, they Facebook simply improve upon its current iOS app and not fragment the experience. Or, maybe it will develop its own mobile operating system (like Android) or, shoot, maybe build its own phone (Apple). Well, maybe those aren’t as likely, but given what we’ve seen in the last few months, with Google buying Motorola, and with Android use growing and iPhone profits skyrocketing, expect Facebook to do something big, something ambitious, and something that leverages its massive user base to penetrate the fabric of the mobile experience with social, by all means necessary.

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The Theatricality and Deception of Bitcoin

It’s been a while since everyone in my Twitter feed has been talking about something that seemed to have come out of nowhere: Bitcoin. Maybe the last time was when SnapChat exploded in the fall of 2012. Of course, Bitcoin has been around for a few years, but for a variety of reasons — the run on the Cypriot banks, general fear about the global economy and specifically the Euro Zone, and politically-based currency manipulations based on reserves — Bitcoin has raised in prominence in the tech world, become the subject of articles in everything from BusinessWeek to the MIT Tech Review to all the daily tech blogs.

Yesterday, I spent 90 minutes reading seven (7) different articles and primers on Bitcoin. There was so much chatter about it, yet if pressed, I couldn’t explain what it was beyond “internet currency.” After reading this pieces, I feel I have a good grasp on what Bitcoins are, but all of the articles I read explained “what” Bitcoins are and “why” they’ve risen in popularity, but none of them offered a glimpse into a future world where Bitcoins were mainstream. That led me to wonder, “Why?” I’ll explain my answer to that question below, but briefly, here’s what I learned about Bitcoins:

  • Bitcoins are a form of web-based currency created by a developer, working under the name “Nakamoto,” who meticulously calibrated the economy around the coins with a finite set of units and around a distributed, peer-to-peer mathematical model of how a Bitcoin captures and retains value.
  • In the past few weeks, the market price for a Bitcoin has increased a lot.
  • There is a startup accelerator that is devoting its summer class to startups focused around Bitcoins, such as YC-backed Coinbase.
  • Tech crowds may be unduly enamored by Bitcoin because it feeds a deeply libertarian utopia where currency is not backed by hard assets (such as gold) or political guarantees or regulatory environments (such as governments), but rather dispassionate algorithms which control both supply and demand.

This much, we all know now. The rise of Bitcoin is fun, fascinating, foreign, and depending on your point of view, scary, a joke, or a real fundamental shift in currency. The truth is, in this case, no one really knows. I’ve thought about writing about this for a few days, but held back because I didn’t think I could add anything that wouldn’t be redundant. Above, I’ve only summarized what I’ve read.

It’s hard for me to imagine a future with Bitcoins, not because I don’t think it’s possible, but because I simply can’t see it in my mind. What I did think about, instead, were some of the initial scenes in “Batman Begins” when Bruce Wayne met Mile Ducard and was educated about the ways of the League of Shadows: “Theatricality and deception are powerful weapons.” Even though people have written about potential regulations (from government, of course), my conclusion in reading those seven posts is that there is a theatricality and deception about Bitcoin that give it incredible potency, something that the crowd intuitively understands could be a shift in how value is stored and shared, but also one where the crowd doesn’t fully understand just how this could all fold — or how disruptive it could be. And, the fact that Bitcoin is faceless, dispassionate, and regulated by networks and models — not governments or hard assets — is so foreign to all of us, that it just may outlast all of the analysis we could conjure up. It could outlive us all and, in doing so, be immortal.

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Full-Time Tech Writers Deserve More Respect

Because I’ve been a contributor to TechCrunch for so long and been consistent about contributing over the past two-and-a-half years, people sometimes think I’m a full-time reporter. That’s definitely far from the truth. Usually when this happens, I respond with the following: “Oh, no, I’m not a full-time reporter, nor could I be one.” My feeling is that, while the crowd likes to pick on full-time tech writers because they’re an easy target, the truth is more subtle. I know this because I’ve seen this live and up-front through my relationship with TechCrunch. The folks there have an extremely hard job, and I’d imagine everyone who does this professionally does. Here are some aspects of being a full-time tech writer that others may not know:

  • Number of posts per day: Many writers are required to write many posts per day. There are some obvious reasons for this, of course, since most people don’t want to pay for information online, but some non-obvious ones which I’ll explain below. Writing at this pace increases the likelihood for all sorts of errors and mistakes, not to mention the competitive pressure to write better posts (faster) than their competitors.
  • Competition: Writers build up their reputation partly by competing with other writers, so they’re racing against their peers to find and publish scoops before others, or to put the best analysis around the news. They can’t let perfection be the enemy of good given their time constraints.
  • Few Incentives To Share Brutal Truths: In the startup world, there are lots of incestuous funding and work-related relationships, and sharing opinions based on hard truths (many of which would be negative) don’t serve the writers well because they may not be contacted by companies in the future or be able to work in the industry later in their careers. Some way not care about this, but other writers may not want to close these doors.
  • Startup Explosion, and PR Explosion: Writers are literally bombarded by startups and their PR reps. I don’t think people truly realize how many people just start things and call themselves “startups,” so the market does need validation like investment notes, as crass as that may seem. Additionally, the amount of money spent on PR would shock people, and it’s hard to escape it — many VCs have reps, too. In many cases, even though investors wouldn’t admit it, they and many others sometimes rely on the analytical work of these writers to help inform their investment decisions.

Finally — and I think this is important — tech writers actually help startups a lot out of a pure desire to be helpful and see them succeed. I’ve seen writers ruin their nights or weekends to cover a launch or new product because the team didn’t get in touch with them far enough in advance. This is not to say that the writers pen glowing reviews, but others often don’t respect the writer’s time, and I’ve seen many of them change their schedule to accommodate the rest of us, the founders and investors, because generally this kind of work is viewed as not-as-important in the Valley. This is something I’ve been thinking about because I hear complaints often, and I always say that, having seen how this is done, this is a job that I wouldn’t be able to do — it is very hard and requires a different level of dedication and risks. All of this isn’t to say that full-time writers should be immune to criticism (just like any other job), but I’d like people to consider these facts before bashing the folks who do this hard work.

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Five Mega-Trends Which Make Nextdoor Fascinating

Last year, while working out of Javelin Venture Partners in downtown SF, our offices were next door to a company called Nextdoor. Yes, that’s true. I am not a Nextdoor user. I didn’t think much of them at the time, but I had to walk by them everyday to go to the bathroom. And, looking inside, I could see there was increased activity. This was the summer of 2012. Since then, I’ve read a few longer-form pieces about Nextdoor, and obviously they’ve attracted smart venture money. Despite all that, I tend to think about Nextdoor differently, in terms of a confluence of mega-trends that touches on some previous academic work and philosophies about the state of the U.S. economy and political atmosphere. From this angle, thinking about investment into products where societal trends are shifting is fascinating to me. Briefly, those are:

  1. Local Advertising, from Yellow Pages to Online: This is the market Groupon and others tried to go after, and it’s so huge, all of those ad dollars will get sliced up in many ways. Yelp is v1.0 of this, with a long way to go.
  2. Location or Proximity as Context for Knowing People: Buzzy apps like Highlight or Yobongo before it promise to present us with information about who is around us, but most of them struggled to provide enough context to make a persistent connection with depth.
  3. Poor State of Municipal Finances: The city of Stockton, CA is legally bankrupt. Income inequality is so high in America, and because states, by law, are not allowed to go bankrupt, those problems get pushed down to the city level. When city finances are in the toilet, budgets get cut, so things like community shelters or even police get cut down in some cases. (This meme has been picked up, as folks are suggesting people are using Nextdoor as an “eye in the sky” neighborhood watch.)
  4. Facebook Feed Losing Local Relevance: Maybe local papers will also die off. They’ll have to come online, and they’ll need a Facebook page, and then their stories will get stuck in a huge feed. But the desire to read local news is high, just not distributed well. A platform like Nextdoor’s mental model could solve this.
  5. Collaborative Consumption on a Local Basis: This is old hat, but bears repeating in this context. If it were easy, I think more and more people would share and/or resell slightly-used but quality goods with people they know, and I believe we are just in the early innings of this trend. One reason is the overall stagnation of the economy, but also an attitudinal shift away from excessive commerce and accumulating material items in favor of spending disposable income on experiences.

[One Caveat: To play devil's advocate, home ownership may continue to decline, which means people will rent more, implying they may switch neighborhoods more often (especially in cities) and then be less likely to invest in a service like this.]

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Good Advice I’ve Received In The Valley

You ever meet someone and, they say something, and it stays in your head for a while? Chances are you’ve heard those phrases and sentiments before, but in that moment, based on that person, for some reason, the language sticks with you, and you keep thinking about it in the recess of your brain. I wanted to create a space where I capture those quotes and sentiments, and share them with you — and hopefully add to them as I get more.

This is advice I’ve received in person, 1:1, from the individuals listed below. I’m lucky to have spent time with some outstanding people, so I thought I’d share their wisdom below. Nothing is sensitive so I hope they don’t mind that I reproduce them, but they resonate with me even years after hearing them. In no particular order:

  • Hiten Shah: “Find the one thing that fixes all the other problems.” / in trying to change course, don’t do too many things, but rather find one thing to change that changes everything else.
  • John Lilly: “What do you want? What do you need?” / his framework response to those who ask for advice
  • Mark Goines: “I don’t want to fund entrepreneurs who want to change the world; I want to fund entrepreneurs who want to change an industry.” / cuts against common refrain about entrepreneurship as good, and instead casts it in a more realistic light.
  • Michael Abbott: “People won’t respect you until you ship something…anything.”
  • Tristan Walker: “Don’t underestimate people around here.” / i’ve found usually the most quiet folks have so many accomplishments around here.
  • Anonymous: “Live by the press, die by the press.” / applies to anyone or anything that is too media hungry.
  • Nakul Mandan: “We are here to make a difference.” / simple reminder on why we are here in the valley, not to be safe or afraid, but to realize something bigger.
  • Adam Nash: “I like to play host.” / a short and sweet sentiment about how elders should always try to welcome and support those who are new arrivals or earnestly trying to get somewhere.
  • Matt Cohler: “Everything is a platform.” / beyond product thinking, all of your career positions can be platforms for the next role or job.
  • Alexia Tsotsis: “Be nice.” / it is also a good interpersonal strategy.
  • Michael Dearing: “Let things happen organically.” / sound advice for the Type-A’s of the world, as much as you can try to engineer an outcome, it increases the likelihood it won’t happen.
  • Andrew Chen: “I hope you take a more difficult path.” / before andrew was famous, he gave me this advice and was quite adamant about me not taking another path.
  • Gentry Underwood: “I want to build something that can be even bigger.” / i was hanging out with gentry when clear came out and he was toying with the idea of buying orchestra (which i loved) to climb a bigger hill.
  • Kent Goldman: “Hang around the hoop.”

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Web Search, Beyond Google

Over three years ago, Chris Dixon wrote a great post about “What is Strategic for Google.” You should read it, though I’m sure most of you have already. One of his conclusions is that the browser helps control a different input search bar so that people don’t have to type in google dot com and perhaps go somewhere else. That was three years ago, however, and since then, a web user has more robust choices to search within other sites, as I’ve tried to list below. (Google began in 1998.) There are fears intent-based search could be eclipsed by “discovery” mechanisms presented to users on other sites, but what’s interesting is that the following sites have their own interesting sub-intent-based searches:

  • Quora: Started in 2009, opened to public in 2010, finally improved native search, and this is where I conduct about 15-20% of my native searches.
  • Twitter: Started 2006, now the go-to place for real-time search.
  • LinkedIn: Started 2003, best site to search for people in a professional context.
  • Facebook: Started 2004, (will become) the best site to search for people in a personal context.
  • Pinterest: Started 2009, and will become (I believe) one of the largest search properties on the web.
  • Prismatic: Started 2011, and has built a unique engine, way beyond a Google alert’s power, to allow you to follow only the most relevant information on new or novel or developing topics. During the #Newtown horror, I used Prismatic only to follow the news on this specific topic.
  • Evernote: Started 2004, is the best cross-platform notes service and, though I’m not a huge user, I’d imagine the legions who are search within Evernote a ton.
  • Yelp: Started 2004, essentially brought the yellow pages online, or is trying to.
  • Foursquare: Started 2009, began as a mobile check-in service, but nicely flipped model to include search, both on mobile and web. (h/t to @besvinick for pointing this out)
  • Kayak, Hipmunk, Airbnb, and other travel search sites.
  • ** Amazon: Started in 1997, the place people go to buy stuff now. (** Started before Google)

What this does all mean? I don’t know yet, but I woke up thinking about it. Google went public in 2004, and was quite profitable quickly. Most of these companies, aside from LinkedIn, started then or thereafter. Some are very new. Many of them contain information that was either input directly by users and/or organized by users. There is more human activity in determining how this information is organized and discovered, and while users still go to Google.com or use the search bar in browsers powered by Google, I believe the amount of these “sub-searches” within sites like those listed above will only increase, because the information is sorted in a different way from the beginning, and perhaps could be more relevant to users. Are there other sites within which you search often?

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Hosting Noah Doyle (@noahventure) “In The Studio”

Before the whole Apple Maps fiasco, I was lucky to have Noah Doyle from Javelin (where I eventually worked) in the studio with me. Noah is a pretty special founder and investor. Earlier in his career, he founded a company which went public and then was bought by UAL. And, as he was angel investing, he stumbled upon the team at Keyhole, invested, and eventually joined as an executive as well. That turned out to be a good decision. Keyhole was acquired by Google and became “Maps.” Noah knows maps! In this discussion, he explains how Apple and Google paired up for the iPhone launch, but how, over time, Apple will need to detangle itself from Google’s Maps APIs.